Estimating Detention Levels at ICE Facilities

Interval Average Daily Population

migration
ICE
detention
Published

May 12, 2025

The particular method Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) uses to report the facility-by-facility detainee population seems to be underestimating actual detention levels. For some facilities, ICE’s numbers amount to an undercount of not dozens, but hundreds of detainees.

My colleague Austin Kocher and I have developed a method for obtaining a more up-to-date estimation of how many people ICE is currently detaining. We call it Interval Average Daily Population, or Interval ADP.

A bar chart showing the number of estimated individuals held at the ICE detention facility in Torrance/Estancia. The subtitle says On April 14, 2025, ICE reported an annualized average of 420 detainees at the facility. Using a interval estimate, the number detained on that date is likely closer to 682.

Instead of restating the details here, I suggest you go to Austin’s substack to learn more. If you want to get into the nitty-gritty of the Interval ADP method, I have attached a link to the white paper here, or go to the home page of Relevant Research.